Keir Starmer's Backers Initiate 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Prevent Mayor's Parliamentary Re-entry
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have allegedly kicked off a concerted initiative to stop Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Greater Manchester Mayor, from securing a return to parliament. This move comes after the stepping down of a Manchester-area MP, which has triggered an upcoming byelection.
Serious Barriers in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple figures on the party's powerful NEC have apparently suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to navigate the selection process. This is largely due to the sizable number of Starmer loyalists on the body who are desperate to head off any future leadership challenge.
The Labour party machine is said to have sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs raising concerns about the considerable financial cost and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has made no secret of his national ambitions. Previously, he prompted consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to run for the Labour leadership.
There has long been speculation that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially stand for the Labour leadership if a challenge to Sir Keir emerge. Nevertheless, supporters of the Greater Manchester Mayor have warned against overstating the extent of any planning, suggesting he is deeply committed to his job as mayor and would only return national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," a source close to Burnham remarked.
Political Landscape and Poll Ratings
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs pessimistic about Labour's prospects at the next election, Andy Burnham is seen as the only prominent Labour figure with consistently positive public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the chances are not in his favour—and then win the byelection against competition from Reform UK and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any possible bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
Senior Labour sources have said that a "Block Burnham" operation is already in progress, with the party's organisation being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister personally said that the byelection process was in its "early stages" and told his MPs to cease discussion of possible contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
NEC members have reportedly pointed to not only personal animosity towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated ÂŁ500,000 in campaign funds from other crucial elections across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
Several sources also shared fears about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a significant symbolic victory for them.
Role of the Unions and Democratic Concerns
As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. It is also possible the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter warned against presuming the NEC would automatically block his candidacy, despite Sir Keir's team is largely believed to control it.
The unions occupy a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything perceived as interference from Downing Street.
The leader of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The constituency in question holds a considerable Labour majority. However, Reform UK is likely to mount a significant challenge, building on its vote in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter a challenge from pro-Gaza independents.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to launch a bid for the leadership, a hurdle that is far from certain given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the backbenches.
The departing MP confirmed he was resigning due to declining health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also subject to a parliamentary standards investigation related to his involvement in an offensive online group.