Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the matter with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are not reconciled to defeat and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists argue such a time is looming, and a non-profit named Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Serious Debate
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in scholarly circles but very few government figures or advocates want to engage with the basics. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. They authors two pieces that seek impartiality in detailing the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions encompass flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the idea that there might be valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is beyond just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is likely and that it could happen suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a feckless official who states: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to acquire from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish question."
