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Ouch. On one hand, Australia's protracted campaign to organize the UN climate conference next year has ended in clear failure.

The effort ran for more than three years for the rights to host the world's biggest climate summit and green trade fair, which would have brought tens of thousands of people to the South Australian capital next November.

That's not happening. Rather, the summit known as the UN climate meeting is headed to the tourist destination of Antalya, on the Mediterranean coast of Turkey.

Letdown and Mixed Messages

This outcome will be a major let down to numerous individuals who had hoped organizing the climate carnival could help speed up Australia's transition from being a carbon-based economy to a renewable energy superpower, and bring global attention to the existential plight facing Pacific island nations, who would have been co-hosts.

The process that resulted in defeat has been an unclear situation. Recently, there have been doubts that Anthony Albanese and other senior figures really wanted the proposal to succeed. The prime minister's language sent mixed messages at best. It translated to reports in the local and global press saying the administration was withdrawing.

This differed from the communication being conveyed at the climate negotiations in the city of Belem, where the environment minister, Chris Bowen, had just stated the country was "fully committed to success".

Uncertain support is not a new issue for Australia's Cop31 bid. Although Bowen championed it, other senior members of the administration have only occasionally appeared to care.

DFAT, traditionally responsible for international climate negotiations, has been uninvolved and sometimes outright opposed.

Evidence suggests the prime minister has considered international climate meetings a important focus. He has missed one since becoming prime minister in 2022. We'll never know, but many may question if additional efforts were possible to get the bid over the line.

An Alternative View

That's one interpretation. However, another perspective to consider it.

In the context the Cop30 talks this week in South America – and from an international perspective – the announcement on this week may, perversely, have been the most favorable outcome possible.

The minister outlined on Wednesday an novel agreement that he was working on with his Turkish counterpart, Murat Kurum. Turkey would be the conference leader, organizer and primary coordinator, and Australia – the climate minister – would assume a role as "president of negotiations", wrangling almost all nations on the stuff that the countries actually attend for – the talks on how to collectively address the environmental emergency.

Additionally, there would be a greater focus on the Pacific, including a preliminary meeting on an Pacific island.

Reasons for Doubt

There are plenty of grounds for doubt. The two nations do not have a strong partnership. The details of the deal had not been completed at the moment of announcement. The entire arrangement could collapse before it gets started.

However, it might represent a way to recover value from what looked like an approaching car crash for the international cooperation on climate change.

Turkey is widely seen in the global community as having been determined on creating disruption in the UN climate process. This framework is supposed to work by unanimous agreement. Usually, that means if there are multiple countries in the race those with less support either withdraw gracefully, or a compromise is privately arranged to encourage them to step aside.

Turkey clearly had less support than Australia and Pacific islands to host Cop31. Approximately 24 of the 28 nations responsible for selecting next year's venue had supported the southern pitch.

However, exceptionally, Turkey refused to yield. The word "bastardry" has been thrown around in recent days, and not only by Australians.

Geopolitical Context

Turkey's obstinacy can be read as a manifestation of the divided international landscape. With the US absent under the former president, there has been no dominant nation with the influence to stare down the oil producers that provided the Turkish government with some cover.

The Turkish president is seen as close to the Russian leader. Several nations feared a summit hindered from the top if his government managed the discussions. And the Germans did not want to have to host an unprepared climate conference at the UN climate headquarters in the German city, which is what would have happened under UN rules if the stalemate wasn't broken.

An Innovative Approach

A resolution was necessary. The UN system is flawed and often disconcerting to observe, but multilateral action has demonstrably made a difference in the battle with climate change. The Turkey-Australia arrangement is a creative idea that maintains progress when it is needed more than ever.

Notwithstanding reasonable concerns of the Australian government over its contradictory stance for expanding fossil fuel exports, environmental advocates who participate in international meetings see the minister as a force for good in the negotiations. He has been requested to lead discussion groups at each of the four conferences he has attended.

This is significant. Although certain critics have downplayed the importance of a "chief negotiator", experts from research centers and veteran observers at climate talks say it is pivotal to their positive outcome.

"Each effective summit has been determined by a president directing proceedings who can listen, forge agreement and achieve an ambitious outcome. This occurred in the German capital in 1995, in the Mexican resort in 2010 and Paris in 2015. The reverse happened in Copenhagen in 2009," he says. "This position is critical at the conference other than making sure that people have food."

Remaining Concerns

There are plenty of unresolved issues. As an illustration, civil society is essential at environmental summits. What, if at all, can the federal administration do to prevent a crackdown on NGO participation by the Turkish leadership?

Possibly little. But that doesn't stop this deal appearing as the most promising opportunity possible to have a summit that may offer something for the Pacific, Australia and the world. This attempt is justified.